Dong Nai updates growth scenario

In the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, Dong Nai’s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth ranked 7th nationwide and the highest in the southern region. However, this growth rate was still lower than the scenario required to achieve the 10% growth target for 2026.

Dong Nai is promoting public investment disbursement to create momentum for economic growth. In the photo: Construction of Provincial Road Project 25C. Photo: Pham Tung

Growth approaches scenario targets

In the first quarter of 2026, Dong Nai recorded economic growth of 9.76%, while its GRDP structure continued to shift in a positive direction. In the context of global and domestic economic difficulties, this is a positive growth rate. However, the Q1 2026 growth was still 0.08 percentage points lower than province’s annual growth scenario, (under the scenario, Q1-2026 growth was expected to reach 9.84%).

According to Dong Nai Provincial Statistics Office, analysis shows that the main reason for the lower-than-expected growth in Q1 2026 is the uneven growth among sectors and that some spillover drivers have not been fully realized as expected.

Specifically, the industry – construction sector in Q1 2026 achieved a growth rate of 11.78%, contributing 6.31 percentage points. Of this, industry alone contributed 5.8 percentage points and continued to be the pillar of Dong Nai’s economy.

However, a deeper analysis by sector shows that the major bottleneck lies in the construction sector. According to the scenario, construction in Q1 2026 was expected to grow by 16.44%, but in reality, it only increased by 11.72%. The housing construction segment alone grew by only 3.95%.

This indicates that this sector has not generated the expected level of spillover effects. “Growth in the construction sector increased year-on-year, but the added value generated in Q1 2026 failed to reach the level necessary to bring overall GRDP in line with the scenario”,  analyzed Cao Dang Vien, Head of Dong Nai Statistics Office.

Workers at Dong Tien Joint Stock Company (Amata Industrial Park) during production hours. Photo: Pham Tung

Also according to Cao Dang Vien, the service sector grew by 8.73% in Q1 2026, contributing 2.36 percentage points to overall growth. However, this was still 0.86 percentage points lower than the scenario target. Thus, it can be seen that although the service sector grew, the quality of growth was not strong enough to share the pressure with the industrial sector.

Meanwhile, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector is assessed as having stable growth. However, as it accounted for only 11.24% of GRDP, it was not sufficient to offset the shortfall in the service and construction sectors.

Speaking at the Conference reviewing socio-economic performance in Q1 2026 and deploying directions and tasks for Q2 2026 in the province, Deputy Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee and Chairman of the Provincial People’s Committee Nguyen Van Ut assessed that there remained limitations in the province in Q1. Although economic growth was high, it had not yet met the targets set in the 2026 scenario.

Accelerating in Q2 2026

According to the Dong Nai Statistics Office, the lower-than-expected growth in Q1 2026 stems from three main causes: the main growth driver still remained concentrated in the industrial sector, while construction and services failed to meet expectations; public investment disbursement, project progress, site clearance, and investment procedures remained bottlenecks, slowing the formation of added value in the first quarter. Meanwhile, rising input costs, weak purchasing power, and a segmented market situation resulted in uneven growth spillovers.

According to Dong Nai Statistics Office, in March 2026, pressure from input costs and price levels meant that although enterprises continued to increase output and revenue, their profit margins were lower. Meanwhile, consumers tended to spend more cautiously. This is the reason why both the construction and service sectors did not follow the trajectory of the early-2026 scenario.

Based on Q1 2026 growth results, Dong Nai Statistics Office has updated the 2026 growth scenario, targeting a 10% growth for the whole year. Accordingly, to achieve this target, Dong Nai must record higher growth rates in the remaining quarters of 2026. Specifically, Q2 2026, growth is projected at 9.8%; the first half of the year at 9.78%; Q3 at 10.55%; and Q4 at around 10%, respectively.

According to Cao Dang Vien, under this scenario, in the coming time, Dong Nai needs to focus more decisively on four groups of tasks: accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital and removing procedural bottlenecks to quickly increase construction value; maintaining the growth momentum of processing and manufacturing industries, energy, exports, and logistics; effectively stimulating demand in the trade and service sectors to create more room for service growth in subsequent quarters; and continuing to promote the role of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries as a “supporting pillar”, contributing to stabilizing overall economic growth.

By Pham Tung - Translated by Diec Quyen, Thu Ha