Mapping out growth scenarios to achieve the double-digit growth target

To achieve the target of 10% GRDP growth in 2025, Dong Nai province must achieve a minimum growth rate of 12.8% in quarter 4-2025 alone. Based on the minimum growth rate that needs to be achieved, the Provincial People's Committee has developed a growth scenario for the last 3 months of 2025.

Dong Xoai III Industrial Park (Binh Phuoc ward) is an attractive destination for investors. Photo: Phu Quy

Major challenge

According to targets set by the government, Dong Nai province must achieve a GRDP growth rate of 8.7% in the second half of 2025 and 8.5% for the whole year. However, with a strong determination to lay a solid foundation for the next development phase, Dong Nai continues to aim for an annual growth rate of 10% in 2025.

According to Provincial Party Committee member and Director of the Department of Finance, Truong Thi Huong Binh, in the third quarter of 2025, Dong Nai province recorded a GRDP growth of 10.18%, ranking third nationwide. Cumulatively over the first nine months of 2025, the province posted a growth rate of 8.86%, placing tenth across the country.

In the overall growth rate for the first nine months of 2025, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector grew by 4.1%. Industry and construction rose by 10.32%, with industry alone increasing by 9.34%. Services expanded by 8.95%, and product taxes increased by 6.78%.

Deputy Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee and Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee, Vo Tan Duc, assessed: To achieve these results, Dong Nai province has drastically directed the implementation of tasks related to public investment and planning to shape new development drivers. In addition, industrial production activities maintained good growth momentum, and FDI attraction achieved many positive results.

Based on the results achieved in the first three quarters of 2025, Dong Nai province must reach a minimum growth rate of 12.8% in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target of 10%. To pursue this goal, the province has developed detailed growth "scenarios" for each specific sector.

Accordingly, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector is required to achieve a growth rate of 4.35%. The industry and construction sectors are expected to grow by 15.87%, with the industry sector alone increasing by 14.58%. Services are expected to grow by 9.99%, and product taxes are expected to grow by 13.09%.

According to the assessment, achieving the minimum growth target in quarter 4-2025, is a very challenging task that requires the total effort and highest determination from the entire political system.

Comrade VO TAN DUC, Deputy Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee, requested that relevant units continue implementing the construction of social housing projects, striving to complete 4,208 social housing units in 2025.

High concentration needed to achieve the goal

To achieve the growth target in quarter 4-2025, according to the Provincial People's Committee, the key tasks that need to be implemented are: Accelerating public investment disbursement, considering this a key task to promote growth; promoting industrial - construction, service and high-tech agricultural production as these are the three growth pillars of the province; promoting domestic investment attraction, high-quality FDI and accelerating the progress of land use right auctions.

According to the Department of Finance, to achieve the target of 100% disbursement of public investment capital as planned by the Prime Minister in 2025, Dong Nai province must focus on completing the disbursement of more than 8.3 trillion VND of remaining capital by the end of the year.

As of November 6, total state budget revenue had reached over 75 trillion VND. Including revenue from three auctioned land plots, the accumulated budget revenue amounted to more than 81.2 trillion VND. To meet the target of 100 trillion VND in budget revenue set by the Provincial Party Committee's Resolution, Dong Nai province must collect over 18.7 trillion VND in the remaining months of 2025. At the current rate of collection, domestic revenue and import-export revenue are expected to be sufficient to meet the target.

Provincial Party Committee member and Director of the Department of Agriculture and Environment Nguyen Tuan Anh said: To achieve the GRDP growth target for the agricultural sector, the department will focus on decisively and synchronously implementing solutions. Among these, it will focus on completing two ongoing tasks: the 2025 agricultural extension program and effectively implementing the components of the Carbon Reduction Project until 2030, with a vision extending to 2050, within the province.

According to the Provincial Land Fund Development Center, from now until the end of 2025, the unit will focus on accelerating the auction process for five priority land plots, as directed by the Provincial Party Standing Committee, located in Tran Bien Ward, Tam Hiep Ward, and Phuoc An Commune. The total estimated starting price for these five plots is over 14.8 trillion VND. In parallel, the center will also strive to auction two additional land plots with a combined estimated starting price of around 900 billion VND.

At the thematic conference on key tasks and solutions for the remaining months of the year to achieve the 2025 economic growth target, organized by the Provincial Party Committee on November 8, Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee Vo Tan Duc emphasized: The last two months of the year are a time for full effort and acceleration. Therefore, the Provincial People's Committee requires departments, agencies, and localities to prioritize the implementation of their assigned tasks.

By Pham Tung, Translated by Mai Nga, Minho