Opportunities and challenges for the 2026 economy

The global economy in 2026 is projected to face continued fluctuations with intertwined opportunities and challenges. Trends such as supply chain restructuring, digital transformation, and green transition will persist, offering Vietnamese enterprises chances to integrate deeper into global supply chains, provided they meet sustainable production criteria.

Electronic component production for export at Electronic Tripod Vietnam Co., Ltd. in Bien Hoa 2 Industrial Park, Dong Nai province. Photo: Khanh Minh

Global GDP growth in 2026 is expected to slow to just over 2.3% compared to a projected 3.2% in 2025. This deceleration is attributed to weak purchasing power, high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and rising trade protectionism.

Identifying opportunities and challenges

Vietnam maintains a high level of economic openness, making it heavily dependent on international trade. While this provides opportunities to exploit global markets and attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), it also leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks like declining consumer demand, geopolitical conflicts, and technical barriers.

However, Vietnam's high economic openness leaves the country susceptible to external shocks, such as declining consumer demand in major markets, trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and technical barriers. These factors are expected to exert significant pressure on domestic production, exports, and overall economic growth.

In 2026, global trends indicate that countries and territories will increase investment, particularly public investment, in infrastructure, green transition, and digital technologies such as AI and semiconductors. Concurrently, nations are expected to accelerate reforms and strengthen internal resilience.

As a leading economic powerhouse in the country, Dong Nai relies heavily on industrial production, exports, and foreign investment for its socio-economic development. With industrial products exported to over 180 countries and territories, any slowdown in global economic growth will directly impact the province's development.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, noted that in 2026, Viet Nam’s economy will face a range of external difficulties and challenges, including geopolitical tensions, trade wars, trade protectionism, cybersecurity risks, and climate change. Domestically, private investment and consumption remain lower than pre-COVID-19 levels, while exports have shown signs of deceleration since August 2025. Public investment disbursement continues to be slow and uneven. Businesses are still encountering multiple difficulties due to rising input and logistics costs, unstable orders, and increasingly stringent requirements for digital transformation and green transition. In addition, exchange rate pressures persist, gold prices fluctuate sharply, real estate prices remain elevated, risks in the corporate bond market continue to exist, and the recovery of the real estate market remains uneven. The issuance of implementing guidelines for newly enacted laws and the development of institutional frameworks for emerging sectors, such as the digital economy, green economy, circular economy, and energy transition, have been slow. Furthermore, the operation of the two-tier local government model still faces certain constraints.

In 2025, Dong Nai’s import and export activities recorded strong growth. Export turnover was estimated at over USD 34 billion, representing an increase of more than 19 percent compared with the previous year, while import turnover was estimated at nearly USD 25.6 billion. The trade balance continued to favor the province, with a trade surplus of approximately USD 8.4 billion.

Solutions for enterprises

Global trade in 2026 is projected to remain under considerable pressure. Nevertheless, many economists and foreign corporations continue to express strong confidence in the economic prospects of Vietnam as a whole, and Dong Nai Province in particular.

Dang Van Diem, Chairman of the Dong Nai Business Association, noted that enterprises should closely track developments in domestic and international markets, carefully assess their impacts on specific industries, and proactively adopt appropriate response strategies. At the same time, enterprises are encouraged to make effective use of State support policies related to taxation, fees, interest rates, and digital applications, while streamlining costs, processes, and organizational structures to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness.

In 2026, the dominant global trend will be the dual transition of green transition and digital transformation, particularly the application of AI. Enterprises that take the lead in green transition and ESG implementation will be better positioned to secure large-scale orders from both domestic and international partners. In addition, experts emphasize the importance of diversifying markets, partners, supply chains, products and services, as well as capital sources, while more fully leveraging the bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements signed and implemented by Viet Nam.

The global economy in the coming year is expected to face multiple challenges, including persistent geopolitical conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine; intensifying trade and technology disputes, coupled with rising fragmentation and protectionism; inflation and interest rates that, despite easing, remain elevated; high levels of public and private debt; weak growth in major economies such as the United States, China, and Europe, resulting in subdued global growth in 2026; ongoing risks related to energy security, food security, supply chains, and cybersecurity; and increasingly unpredictable climate change.

Enterprises are therefore urged to strengthen their internal capacity and competitiveness, particularly in human resources, technology, governance, products and services, and risk management. Enhancing transparency in product origin, restructuring supply chains, integrating more deeply into global value chains, and reinforcing self-reliance and resilience are critical. Enterprises should also proactively develop mechanisms to share tariff-related costs with partners.

Dong Nai currently has more than 80 industrial parks and over 60 industrial clusters that have been, are being, or will soon be developed with comprehensive technical infrastructure and strong connectivity to transport networks and ports. This creates significant opportunities for enterprises to collaborate and invest in industrial production to serve both domestic consumption and export markets. In parallel, the province has planned a range of projects in commerce, services, logistics, urban development, and tourism, actively inviting participation from both domestic and foreign investors.

Kim Nyoun Ho, Chairman of the Korean Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, stated that with its strong infrastructure advantages and favorable investment climate, Dong Nai will continue to be a preferred destination for Korean and other foreign enterprises in the time ahead. The Korean Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam will play a facilitating role by providing information and support to Korean enterprises seeking investment opportunities in the province.

With its estimated 2025 achievements - including total social development investment exceeding VND 179.5 trillion, industrial production growth of over 15 percent, domestic investment attraction surpassing VND 163 trillion, and foreign direct investment of more than USD 3 billion - Dong Nai has established a solid foundation for sustaining high growth momentum in the coming year. Notably, the province currently possesses a substantial industrial land reserve of more than 43,300 hectares across its industrial parks and clusters.

By Khanh Minh – Translated by Thuc Oanh, Thu Ha